Who will be blamed if grocery prices go up?
We don’t grow much coffee within the United States. Only Hawaii and Puerto Rico are really capable of it and even if we started up tomorrow, American consumers demand so much that we would still need to import it.
Tariffs will cause the price of coffee to go up. Profit margins are so low in the coffee business, most of the 10% tariff will go to price increases.
We don’t produce bananas in the United States because our climate is not sufficient to grow bananas. They must still be imported.
Tariffs will cause the price to go up.
Cinnamon, cumin, black pepper, most red peppers, cardamom, paprika, vanilla beans, and many additional spices grow only in limited amounts in American territories. They all must be imported at the scale demanded by American consumers.
Tariffs will cause the price to go up. That increase will spill over into processed foods that use those commodities and into restaurants as well.
Many seasonal fruits only grow in the United States for a limited time of year. In the off season, we import those fruits. They range from limes to lemons to apples and more.
Tariffs will cause the price to go up.
The price will probably not rise, in many cases, by 10% — the total minimum tariff. Companies will cut their profits, which will impact shareholders, including many of the retirement plans of working-class Americans. Companies will slow hiring or cut jobs to avoid passing on the full cost of the tariff to consumers. In some cases, companies will spread out a price increase broadly to all products. Prices will go up.
In businesses with tight margins, like some grocery stores and restaurants, the price will increase more as the profit margin is so much smaller.
For four years, President Donald Trump lamented grocery price increases on Americans under the Biden administration. Now, because of the broad nature of his tariffs, Trump will see prices go up on American consumers for many of their regular household grocery purchases.
Even if one accepts the tariffs are necessary, needed or appropriate, raising grocery prices right now is not just an extra burden on Americans, but a terrible political idea that could really hurt Republicans.
The President has said that short term pain will lead to long term gains. But if the pain lasts for a few more months, Republicans risk a restoration of Democrat control of Congress — definitely the House. The Democrats will take their restoration as an affirmation of their policies, not a reaction to the economic set back.
The biggest issue, however, remains groceries. Americans tossed the Democrats for inflation. Tariffs will make basic staples more expensive. Mr. Trump and the Republicans will be blamed.