There was a noticeable shift in Moscow in the last few days. Russians seem … lighter. Like they were just told that vodka hydrates better than water. And I’m not the only one to have noticed. American and Western expats here have picked up on the same vibe, and admit to a similar feeling themselves.

It all started when U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met for the first time in Saudi Arabia to take the first steps in normalizing relations between the two nations.

And that’s exactly how the average Russian seems to views it — not so much an Ukraine issue as a much larger reshaping of the global geopolitical landscape, with Ukraine as really just the current center ring for a years-long global boxing tournament between two heavyweight contenders. After all, they figure, the conflict in Ukraine popped off after years of the U.S. and its NATO allies using Ukraine as a pressure valve that can be dialed up or down on Russia right in its own backyard, supporting anti-Russian politicians and movements at least as far back as 20 years with the Orange Revolution, and more recently cozying up to the Russian border with weapons and Western-trained Ukrainian fighters who even alarmed their Canadian military trainers with their Nazi-themed accessorizing, as the Ottawa Citizen reported back in

2021, well before the current conflict went red hot.

Everyone from Russian taxi drivers, to gym bros and baristas have asked me over the past few days whether I think there will finally be peace between the U.S. and Russia. More than a few are hopeful that Trump, as a businessman, might break Washington’s usual routine of trying to cast himself as a main character in yet another remake of a Hollywood Cold War action movie against stereotypical Russian baddies.

And every indication so far is that they’re right to be hopeful.

Trump has just created a similar sovereign wealth fund for the U.S. with an executive order that could feasibly result in a partnership with its $10 billion Russian counterpart on joint projects for mutual profit. And it’s hard to imagine a better way to ensure lasting and stable peace between nations than through mutually profitable joint ventures.

“The United States can leverage such returns to promote fiscal sustainability, lessen the burden of taxes on American families and small businesses, establish long-term economic security, and promote US economic and strategic leadership internationally,” the White House said on February 3, as Trump announced the new fund.

Turns out that the first such project may just be on the table already in the current negotiations, with Kirill Dmitriev, the CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fundm telling the press in the wake of the initial contacts that there has already been a “general discussion” of “maybe joint projects in the Arctic,” involving energy and natural resources.

There’s also every indication that the Trump administration views Ukraine’s future peace and stability through an economic lens. Although most of the country’s resources are currently in Russian-held territory, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Feb. 24 that Russia would be “ready to offer” joint development opportunities of rare earth minerals there to its “American partners… if they showed interest in working together.”

If Germany and Japan can become military and economic allies in the wake of the Second World War, then why can’t the Cold War with the former Soviet Union finally end similarly?

Nearly all wars are about money. Trump’s presidency is a rare chance to ditch that excuse and start a new era of cooperation — something that, until a few days ago, felt about as plausible as Moscow and Washington going halfsies on a timeshare.