Submitted Graphic A weather model map shows areas of below normal precipitation expected for this summer. North Dakota is situated within a large dry area.

North Dakotans should brace for drought, according to summer projections released by the National Weather Service Tuesday.

NWS meteorologist Megan Jones in Bismarck said one model shows a 47% chance of below normal precipitation for June through August.

“We’re not saying that everywhere is going to have below normal precipitation, but for the state and across the season as a whole, this is what’s favored right now,” she said.

The difficulty is North Dakota heading into a drought at a time when most of the state already is in a drought.

“Precipitation is not going the way that we hoped, unfortunately,” Jones said. “The only area that’s really doing well is the northeast corner of the state.”

The remainder of the state, especially parts of the west and central, are as low as 25-50% of normal moisture, she said. Grand Forks is about 15 inches below seasonal snowfall, and the I-94 corridor is anywhere from 20-30 inches below normal.

“The amount of drought in North Dakota is roughly equal to what we’ve seen in North Dakota going into last year’s spring season,” said NWS hydrologist Allen Schlag, Bismarck. “Last winter there was almost no snow on the ground going into the spring traditional snow melt season. What really saved us were the April rains.”

Jones said there is a brighter picture for April this year, too.

“We’re not really seeing anything too consistent, but it doesn’t look dry. So, we’re hoping that we can at least get a little something to help us out before we go into the summer, when that dry signal really starts to increase before eventually fading in the fall,” she said.

Schlag said large areas across North Dakota show deficient soil moisture.

“That soil moisture is so crucial to getting a good head start on our vegetation growing season as we move through the months of April and May when the soils really warm up, and then that excess soil moisture oftentimes is what makes or breaks those early season crops,” he said. “Right now, it is pretty dire across the state with regard to soil moisture. I suspect we’ll see a little bit of improvement on the eastern side of the state as they continue to see that snow that they had recently received infiltrate into the ground.”

With the dry conditions comes a low flood risk and high wildfire risk.

Schlag said two places that could see minor flooding are in the Turtle Mountain area, northeast of Bottineau, along Willow Creek, and, if snow melt is rapid, in the Pembina River watershed near Langdon.

Schlag said it is too early to assess runoff that will come into the Missouri River from Montana, where the snowpack won’t peak until the second week of April. Current snowpack is around 95-98% of normal, he said.

Schlag said without snowmelt to recharge soils and aquifers, significant changes could occur on the state’s drought map in coming weeks.

“If I had to guess, those changes are not going to look nice. They’re going to put more color on the map and increase the coverage of drought across North Dakota,” he said. “The expectations are not rosy going forward. So, kind of in a summary for the hydrological concerns, there’s really no indication in the seasonal outlooks that we should expect widespread relief to the current drought conditions. At the same time, though, we always have to remember that while that statement is true, it also is true that we don’t always see changes in the existing trends really far into the future. Things tend to kind of sneak up on us, all of a sudden. We don’t realize we are wetter than normal until we’ve had our second or third week in a row of decent rainfall. So that may again be the case this year.”

Jones said April temperatures are projected to be slightly cooler than normal.

“It is worth noting that average high temperatures go from around 50 degrees at the start of the month to the lower 60s by the end of the month. So even if it’s below normal and ends up below normal, that doesn’t mean cold. That just means a little bit cooler for this season,” she said.

The NWS reported June doesn’t show clear signs of deviating from normal temperatures, but July, August and September are favored for above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation.