Current conditions across the Souris River Basin show drought, said

Eric Volkman with the U.S. Geological Survey and co-chair of the ISRB, who participated remotely.

“Not only is there abnormally dry, drought conditions,” he said, “but soil moisture is extremely low and snow pack is low, so those things together will probably mitigate or eliminate the chances of a severe flood. But, obviously, that can change at any time.”

ISRB Co-Chair Bruce Davison, with the National Hydrological Service, Environment and Climate Change Canada, said in 2025, the expectation is Boundary Reservoir near Estevan, Saskatchewan, will fill. He said it is possible the existing diversion channel may be used to divert any excess water from the smaller Boundary Reservoir into Rafferty Reservoir, also near Estevan.

Jill Schramm/MDN Rebecca Seal-Soileau with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers speaks at the International Souris River Board’s public meeting in Minot Tuesday. From left are Pat Dowd and Karl Jansen with the Corps.

“Rafferty is not expected to reach its full supply level; however, Grant Devine Reservoir is expected to reach its full supply level this year,” he said.

Grant Devine Dam, formerly Alameda, is located on Moose Mountain Creek near Oxbow, Saskatchewan, which flows into the Souris River.

The Souris River had more flow in 2024 than is anticipated for 2025, resulting in a surplus of water for both the U.S. and Canada, Davison said. Saskatchewan was entitled to 60% of the flow, while the U.S. was to receive 40%.

“In a nutshell, the U.S. did receive a surplus of water – more than the 40% share,” Davison said. “The U.S. share of the natural flow was 43,935 acre feet, but what was received by the U.S. was 88,773.”

Davison also discussed projects the ISRB is conducting with funding from the International Joint Commission (IJC). One project yet to wrap up is the development of potential, future climate change scenarios in the basin.

“The next phase is really helping to advance the hydrological models that can be used to look at what might possibly happen in the future,” Davison said of that research.

“Most models generally don’t work in the prairies. But there’s some really promising research that’s coming out with some of our colleagues at some of the prairie universities in Canada,” he said. “They’re working with colleagues in the United States as well, looking at improving these models so that they can work effectively in these prairie environments and have more confidence in the results that come from them.”

Asked about implementation of recommendations of a Souris River study board, Davison said the ISRB’s effort to work through its own board restructuring over the past couple of years pushed much of the implementation to the side temporarily.

“We will have a fully functioning board in the next month or so, at which point we’ll be in a better position to start looking at those questions,” he said.

“There was a lot of work and effort put into this,” said Lynn Kongslie, Towner, who served on one of the study groups. “Just to see it go by the wayside is really frustrating and disappointing.”

Rebecca Seal-Soileau, with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and ISRB’s Adaptive Management Committee, said developing better hydrology tools and looking at impacts of climate change are important to implementing the study board’s recommendations. That research should pay off in implementation over the next two years or so, she said.

Mark Lee, ISRB member representing Manitoba Sustainable Development, said recommendations such as including Indigenous members on the board and creating an Adaptive Management Committee were adopted. However, ISRB is awaiting action from the IJC regarding recommendations on changes to the U.S.-Canada agreement on Souris River management, he said.

Volkman also noted one of the mandates for ISRB from the IJC is to take more of an ecosystem-centric approach to transboundary water issues.

Rivers create ecosystems that stretch for miles and miles away from their banks, but the ISRB has been focused on managing the river itself, he said.

“There’s still definitely a role for that, but the IJC has directed the board to begin considering things outside the immediate banks of the river, to where (we’re) more and more taking an ecosystem approach to the entire length of the Souris River,” Volkman said.