The Climate Prediction Center, an extension of the National Weather Service, says a strengthening La Nina is expected to influence winter weather though the Northern Hemisphere. Simply explained, La Nina is a cooling of Pacific Ocean temperatures that historically has resulted in colder than usual winters for North Dakota, Minot included.

Unfortunately, La Nina strengthened recently when forecasters remained divided as to whether or not it would play an influential role in our winter. The probability that La Nina will have an effect, a negative effect, on our winter is now rated at 80 percent. That’s a near certainty for weather forecasters.

So what does a La Nina mean? Well, yuk. But not really yukky. After all, current La Nina conditions are still considered “weak to moderate.” Here’s how the CPC explains it:

“La Nina is anticipated to affect temperatures and precipitation across the United States during the coming months. The outlooks generally favor below-average temperatures and above-median precipitation across the northern tier of the United States.”

Submitted Photo Here’s the latest temperature outlook through February as compiled by the Climate Prediction Center. If true, the Minot area is in for a colder than usual winter.

Minot is smack dab in the middle of the “northern tier,” the center of the bullseye for La Nina. Does that mean the region is in for the absolute worst winter weather imaginable? Not quite. Remember, this La Nina is “weak to moderate.” Nevertheless, the CPC’s long-range forecast for the Minot region won’t be well received by many.

The latest long-range outlook issued by the CPC calls for below normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation through March, exactly what La Nina’s are expected to do. The NWS forecast for Minot over the next two weeks calls for colder than normal temperatures along with some snowfall.

Next Monday, Christmas Day, daytime high temperatures throughout the region will be lucky to break zero. Windchills could plummet close to -30 or more. Beyond that, and long-range weather forecasting is always subject to change, the Minot area is expected to warm a bit as a bitter cold air mass works its way out of the region.

Will there be more sub-zero temperatures in the weeks ahead? Some for sure. Minot is about as far north as you can get on the Northern Plains. There’s no changing that. However, there remains some hope for a return to more normal winter temperatures in the weeks ahead.

Followers of the Old Farmer’s Almanac can point to that publication’s forecast of “winter will be warmer than normal” for the Minot region and that “snowfall will be below normal” in the Northern Plains into early January. Notable is that the Old Farmer’s Almanac forecast calls for temperatures in January to average 8 degrees above normal. Then again, that outlook was made 18 months in advance. Still, the almanac claims a record of 80 percent accuracy.

The Farmer’s Almanac, a similar publication to the Old Farmer’s Almanac, calls for sharply colder weather for Minot in mid-January. By that, says the Farmer’s Almanac, a possibility of -30.

AccuWeather, a nationally recognized source for weather but not affiliated with the National Weather Service, says the first three weeks of January in Minot will bring temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Overall, predicts AccuWeather, January will be colder than normal.

Normal January temperatures for Minot, according to National Weather Service records, average 21 degrees for daytime highs and overnight lows of 3.5 degrees.

As for February, AccuWeather contends Minot will enjoy plenty of above freezing days. So much so that they say the month will average about 10 degrees above normal. The historical average daytime high for Minot in February is just over 25 degrees.

No matter which forecast holds true, even for a few days or weeks, there’s always going to be some winter days Minoters would rather not encounter. The challenging combination of snow, cold and wind will happen more than once before the spring melt.

While some consider a miserable winter day to be one when the snowblower or the car won’t start, there’s other ways to calculate a “misery index” as well. Who in their darkest hour grades misery?

The answer is sleepopolis. Sleepopolis is an internet mattress review and comparison site that compiles weather statistics and comes up with “most miserable days” for several locations, including North Dakota.

“North Dakotans can expect their darkest and coldest day on January 3rd,” says sleepopolis.

Well that’s the kind of information a person needs to brighten their day.

Here’s how sleepopilis arrives at their “most miserable day” for North Dakota. Using the last 30 years of weather data they use an average of the darkest day of the year, the day with the least solar energy, Dec. 25 and the coldest day statistically, Jan. 12, and combines the two to come up with an average of Jan. 3.

The CPC will issue their next long-range weather outlook Jan. 18.

Official winter underway

What North Dakotans have come to know as winter often starts in October. However, the official start of winter, or astronomical start, occurred Thursday at 10:28 a.m. Oddly, the arrival of winter marks the date when the days slowly begin to get longer. The amount of sunlight today will be 8 hours, 20 minutes. By New Year’s Eve our sunlight will stretch out to 8 hours, 24 minutes.

In January, as the amount of daylight accelerates, Minot will gain 1 hour and 1 minute of daylight. February will see an additional 1 hour, 28 minutes of daylight. By the end of March Minot’s daylight will reach 12 hours, 8 minutes which will make it difficult for winter weather to grip the region.

If you found the going a little bit tough Thursday, this may help explain why. Astrologists maintain tasks undertaken yesterday may have “taken more time and been more frustrating” because of something that hasn’t happened since 1664.

Huh?

Yesterday was the day, according to London, England astrologer Neil Spencer, that may have been the worst day of the year because “the sun will appear to pass in front of the constellation Capricorn hours after Saturn does likewise.”

So, the weather and your day, was Saturn’s fault.

For those who can’t wait for spring, that season officially arrives March 20.