Kim Fundingsland/MDN Water runs over a Souris River water control structure on Minot’s west edge near Tierracito Vallejo. The latest snowmelt forecast calls for less runoff than expected a few weeks ago.

There’s very reassuring news in the latest Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook for the Souris River as issued by the National Weather Service Thursday.

“The key highlight with this outlook is the notable decrease in overall flood risk on the Souris River from Sherwood, through Minot, and downstream to Velva,” declares the outlook.

The outlook cites a “lack of significant frost depth” as a key factor in the shrinking of the snowpack throughout much of the drainage. The heavy snow of a few weeks ago has melted considerably over large areas with a high percentage of meltwater infiltrating into unfrozen ground.

Overall, the flood risk, which never quite reached the stage of serious concern for the basin this year, has decreased considerably. So much so that even previously expected high flows on the flood-prone Des Lacs River have been reduced to well below the level of flood concern.

Problems could still arise, says the outlook, on the Souris River from Towner to Westhope and along Willow Creek near Willow City. The reason why is that a heavy snow cover remains in those areas and that snowmelt is expected to contribute to flows in the lower portion of the Souris in North Dakota. Nevertheless, predicted crests are not outside of what is expected to occur most years in that section of the Souris.

Minor flood stage on the Des Lacs, a level that generally requires little or no additional protective measures, is 1,651 feet. The outlook gives the Des Lacs only a 10 percent chance of reaching that level. At the Boy Scout Bridge west of Minot 1,562 feet is minor flood stage with a 50 percent chance of that predicted to occur. Minor flood stage at Minot’s Broadway Bridge is 1,551 feet with only a 10 percent chance of that happening.

Farther downstream, Towner is given a 95 percent chance of reaching minor flood stage of 1,454 feet. At Westhope minor flood stage is listed at 1,414 feet. The latest outlook says there is a 95 percent chance of the Souris River at the Westhope gauge reaching 1,418 feet. The biggest risk of major flooding is at Westhope, the farthest downstream gauging point on the Souris in North Dakota. Major flood stage there is 1,420 feet. The outlook says there is a 75 percent chance that will occur.

The Saskatchewan Water Security Agency released its Souris River Basin Spring Runoff Outlook on Wednesday. It, too, called for a decrease in the amount of expected runoff. The outlook credits considerable melting in recent weeks and with infiltration into the ground.

The biggest area of previous concern was the heavy snow cover in drainage below dams that capture Souris River runoff at Estevan and Oxbow, Sask. Changes have occurred due to a recent warm spell.

“Forecasted volumes have decreased slightly,” reads the outlook. “Runoff yields are expected to be near median values above Estevan and above median below Estevan.”

Notably, runoff into Alameda Dam has dropped from what was rated a 1-in-10 year event to 1-in-3 and runoff below the Canadian dams has been reduced from a 1-in-15 rating in the Feb. 1 outlook to 1-in-13 this week.

Boundary, Rafferty and Alameda Reservoirs, all in Saskatchewan, are currently below their prescribed operating levels. The concern for storage to guard against possible heavy snowmelt runoff has been exchanged for concern that the reservoirs reach summer operating levels.

On the North Dakota side of the border, at Lake Darling, releases into the Souris were upped to 400 cubic feet per second earlier this week. However, an earlier announced goal of lowering Lake Darling to 1,594 feet has been adjusted to 1,594.5 based on the latest snowmelt projections. Officials there say a decrease in releases may occur as early as next week.

Lake Darling stood at 1,595.29 feet late Thursday. Summer operating level for Lake Darling is 1,598 feet.

Elsewhere in North Dakota, the Flood Potential Outlook for the Missouri and James River systems has changed for the better as a result of a depleted snowpack. According to the outlook, “The overall risk of flooding in the Missouri and James River basins of North Dakota has decreased substantially since the previous outlook.”